Ecological Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in Changing Environments.

One of the major threats for the current functioning of the world we know is the uncertainty about the effects of global climate change. This dissertation aims to understand the effects of a changing environment on the ecological dynamics of vector-borne diseases, one of the major burdens for human populations worldwide. Vector-borne diseases are expected to be highly sensitive to the effects of climatic change, because of the natural history of both the vectors and parasites, which are highly sensitive to small changes in precipitation and temperature. This dissertation investigates several aspects of the effects of changing environments in vector-borne diseases: (i) The plausibility of early warning systems to predict the future dynamics of a disease based on its association to climatic forces, using a time series for cutaneous leishmaniasis cases from Costa Rica,1991-2001 (ii) The mechanisms regulating co-infections of malaria parasites in the island of Santo, Vanuatu, 1983-1997, and (iii) Abrupt dynamical changes in diseases along smoothly changing environments, temporally for malaria in the archipelago of Vanuatu,1983-1999, and spatio-temporally for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Costa Rica, 1996-2000. Methods involved a suite of qualitative and quantitative techniques in order to robustly assess the reliability of results. Frequency, time and time-frequency domain statistical techniques for time series analysis were used to study the association between disease dynamics and climate, time models predictive ability for early warning systems was tested with “out-of-fit” data. Signed digraph loop analyses and quantitative discrete time models were used to discern working hypothesis about parasite species co-infection regulation. Statistical techniques for breakpoints were used to study abrupt dynamical changes. In addition, spatial clustering techniques were used as guidance to establish transmission risk factors. Results show that early warning systems are feasible goals, that malaria parasites and their interactions seem to be regulated in a bottom-up fashion, and that abrupt changes on the sensitivity to the effects of climate change are dependent on the context of transmission. Finally, all the results confirm the importance of considering the whole environmental context in which vector-borne diseases are transmitted and the need for abstraction to understand and manage the underlying complexity.Ph.D.Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/60719/1/lfchaves_1.pd

Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the main emergent diseases in the Americas. As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied monthly data, spanning from 1991 to 2001, of CL incidence in Costa Rica using several approaches for nonstationary time series analysis in order to ensure robustness in the description of CL's cycles. Interannual cycles of the disease and the association of these cycles to climate variables were described using frequency and time-frequency techniques for time series analysis. We fitted linear models to the data using climatic predictors, and tested forecasting accuracy for several intervals of time. Forecasts were evaluated using “out of fit” data (i.e., data not used to fit the models). We showed that CL has cycles of approximately 3 y that are coherent with those of temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation indices (Sea Surface Temperature 4 and Multivariate ENSO Index). CONCLUSIONS: Linear models using temperature and MEI can predict satisfactorily CL incidence dynamics up to 12 mo ahead, with an accuracy that varies from 72% to 77% depending on prediction time. They clearly outperform simpler models with no climate predictors, a finding that further supports a dynamical link between the disease and climate

Diseño de un sistema de gestión de la calidad basado en la norma INTE/ISO/IEC 17025:2017 para el servicio de calibración de termómetros digitales en el Laboratorio de Ciencia de las Mediciones Aplicada de la Sede Interuniversitaria de Alajuela

El siguiente proyecto de graduación presenta los resultados obtenidos de la puesta en práctica del diseño de un sistema de gestión de la calidad, para la documentación de las actividades de calibración de termómetros digitales, en la magnitud de temperatura del Laboratorio de Ciencia de las Mediciones Aplicada. El sistema de gestión se basó en los requisitos establecidos en la norma INTE/ISO/IEC 17025:2017 Requisitos generales para la competencia de los laboratorios de ensayo y calibración; y en el análisis de las instalaciones y el equipamiento ubicado en la magnitud de temperatura del Laboratorio de Ciencia de las Mediciones Aplicada. El sistema de gestión tuvo un enfoque en procesos, lo que permitió visualizar de forma gráfica, las relaciones de cada actividad, y como estas afectan los resultados de documentación de un servicio de calibración. La validación del sistema de gestión, para la calibración de termómetros digitales, consistió en la ejecución de un servicio de calibración de un termómetro digital, donde se evaluaron 4 procesos diseñados, y se emitió un certificado de calibración, de acuerdo a los requerimientos previamente establecidos, para el cumplimiento de la normativa antes mencionada.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Sistema de Estudios de Posgrado::Ingeniería::Maestría Profesional en Ingeniería Industrial con énfasis en Manufactura y Calida

Vivienda Social y Conflicto Vecinal: lo físico espacial como componente en la mitigación de conflictos en copropiedad

El presente documento plantea que la arquitectura de la vivienda influye en el incremento o mitigación de situaciones detonantes de conflictos sociales, entre vecinos de vivienda colectiva de tipo social, regida por el régimen de propiedad horizontal. A partir de esta premisa el texto identifica y analiza los detonantes de conflictos más frecuentes que ocurren tanto en las unidades privadas, como en los espacios colectivos de las copropiedades, valorando particularmente el factor físico espacial del mismo, es decir, en el que interviene directamente la arquitectura. De esta manera, se establecen las causas principales y se proponen unas estrategias de solución arquitectónica, que son la generación de: espacios heterogéneos, espacios funcionales y espacios modificables, planteados de manera que se tiendan a generar unos gastos soportables para los usuarios. Finalmente, presentando tres proyectos de vivienda con diferentes contextos, se establecen configuraciones espaciales donde se puede observar la materialización de las estrategias anteriormente comentadas.Abstract. The document proposes that the architecture of the living quarters has influence over the increase or mitigation of the situations of the triggering situations of social conflicts among neighbors of collective social living quarters type, ruled by the condominium ownership regime. From this premise the text identifies and analyzes the triggering of more frequent conflicts which occur in the private units as well as in the collective spaces of the same, that is to say, in that of which architecture ha direct influence over it. In this way, the main causes established and architectural solution strategies are proposed which are: heterogeneous spaces, functional spaces, modifiable spaces, proposed in such way that tend to generate affordable expenses for the neighbors. Finally through the three living projects with different contexts, space configurations are established where the materialization of the strategies hereby presented can be observed.Maestrí

Kite planar central configurations

Neste artigo estudamos configurações centrais planares do tipo pipa para o problema de quatro corpos. Mostramos a existência de tais configurações para as pipas côncavas, quando uma das massas está no interior do triângulo formado pelas outras três massas, e para as pipas convexas, quando uma das massas está no exterior do triângulo formado pelas outras três massas.In this paper we study the kite planar central configurations for the 4-body problem. We show the existence of such configurations for the 4-body problem in two cases: kite concave and kite convex

Climate Variability and Nonstationary Dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia in Japan

Background: A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales. Methods: We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results: Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics. Conclusions: Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems

El papel de la UNED en la Olimpiada Costarricense de Matemáticas

La Olimpiada Costarricense de Matemática ha estado presente en el territorio nacional por cerca de 34 años; en ella participan anualmente hasta 3000 estudiantes de todos los sectores del país, con el objetivo de fortalecer el desarrollo científico en jóvenes, adolescentes y niños con afinidad por la matemática. La Universidad Estatal a Distancia (UNED) ha sido parte de la organización de estas justas a lo largo de estos 34 años, con el trabajo de sus académicos. En este artículo se presentan algunas de las contribuciones que aporta la UNED a la organización y ejecución de estas competiciones, principalmente en los últimos dos años, en los cuales las condiciones económicas, sociales y de salud han alterado el sistema educativo costarricense. La UNED como universidad que va a la vanguardia de la educación a distancia y educación virtual reafirma su compromiso con la sociedad costarricense al aportar recursos al desarrollo y ejecución de las olimpiadas de matemática, tanto a nivel nacional como internacional. Los resultados de 2021 muestran cómo, a través de plataformas tecnológicas y aspectos organizativos como los que genera la UNED, es factible desarrollar con éxito una competición nacional como lo es la Olimpiada Costarricense de Matemáticas

Perfil de la mortalidad de hembras de Rhodnius robustus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae)

Mortality profile of 48 adult females of Rhodnius robustus shows that data analyzed by weeks and days have a statistical significantly fit (pSe estudió la mortalidad de 48 hembras adultas de Rhodnius robustus. Dada la significancia estadística del ajuste de los datos al modelo de Gompertz (

Uranotaenia novobscura ryukyuana (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Dynamics Are Denso-Dependent and Autonomous From Weather Fluctuations

Larvae of the mosquito Uranotaenia novobscura ryukyuana Tanaka et al., have been reported in tree-holes, bamboo stumps, and artiTcial water containers. So far, no study has addressed the role that density dependence and weather suctuations could have played in the abundance of this nonvector mosquito. A year-long study was conducted on the population dynamics of this mosquito using oviposition traps in Okinawa, Japan. Time series analysis and the Ricker population model were used to analyze the association between mosquito density and population growth and suctuations in relative humidity, temperature, and rainfall. Our results suggest that Ur. novobscura ryukyuana has stable denso-dependent dynamics, which are autonomous from weather suctuations. Our results were opposite to patterns observedin other subtropical mosquito species, whose population dynamics might be partially driven by weather suctuations, thus highlighting the diversity of responses that mosquitoes can have to changing environments

Uso de drones y sensores remotos para el monitoreo de laderas: una revisión

Landslides are one of the most costly and fatal hazards and risks for any road infrastructure, often threatening and influencing the socio-economic situation mainly in developing countries. Landslide studies are often carried out directly on site, and many are costly and challenging given the difficulty of access to study areas. Remote sensing data can be used in landslide monitoring, mapping, simulation, hazard prediction and assessment, and other research. This article presents a literature review on studies related to the use of drones and remote sensing for slope tracking and monitoring, in a descriptive manner that allows through documentation to incorporate relevant information in order to address future more specific studies to take into account landslide monitoring, remote sensing techniques, drones and the global application of this set of new technologies.Los deslizamientos de tierra son uno de los peligros y riesgos más costoso y fatales para cualquier infraestructura vial, que frecuentemente amenazan e influyen en la situación socioeconómica, principalmente, de los países en vía de desarrollo. Frecuentemente, los estudios de deslizamiento se hacen de manera directa, in situ, siendo muchos de ellos costosos y un reto dada la dificultad que se pueden presentar al acceder a las zonas de estudio. Los datos de los sensores remotos se pueden usar en el monitoreo de deslizamientos de tierra, mapeo, simulación, predicción y evaluación de peligros y otras investigaciones. El presente artículo presenta una revisión bibliográfica en estudios relacionados con el uso de drones y sensores remotos para el seguimiento y monitoreo de laderas, de una manera descriptiva y que permita por medio de la documentación incorporar información relevante para poder abordar futuros estudios más específicos que permitan tener en cuenta el monitoreo de deslizamientos de tierra, las técnicas de sensores remotos, drones y la aplicación global de este conjunto de nuevas tecnologías